Quasi-Super Tuesday Dem Predictions

The Midwestern Democratic races are going to be extremely close, with Hillary holding narrow leads in Ohio and Illinois. The campaigns are tied in Missouri, though with only two polls so far it’s hard to make heads or tails of it. I have a feeling that much like last week, Hillary and Bernie will win about the same number of states, while Hillary expands her delegate lead.

Click her for an expanded view of the figure below. SuperTuesdaydem15

SuperTuesdaydem15

In fact I expect Bernie to win all three of the midwestern states, while Hillary increases her delegate total. Bernie will fundraise massively off his wins, the story will surround Bernie’s surge, but there just doesn’t seem to be a way forward for Senator Sanders to win a majority of delegates with the remaining states. Hillary is leading every poll in Ohio and some operatives have expressed optimism for her there but I think the momentum is with Sanders. If Hillary were to win either Illinois or Ohio I think it would seriously quiet Bernie’s surge. Winning 3 or more states and a lot of delegates would probably end the viability of the Sanders campaign.

MizzDem

Leave a comment